The 2017 Presidential Speculations Where Should They Stand

Was again looking through my previous publications and treasure trove of things I've written over the past eight year. The following article was published sometime in mid 2012.

By Lamii Kpargoi

Unlike many parts of the world, where only known political quantities stand a good chance to win elective office following years of public scrutiny, in Liberia most people aspiring to public office run for the office regardless of the fact that they are virtually unknown even in their own little communities.

Such people even go to the extent of thinking that some accident might happen that would propel them to the presidency. As a result of this, some of them employ the help of marabous from Mali and other places in the sub-region to magically get them to the presidency. Others rely on Nigerian preacher men from the Christian faith to perform their magic. Yet still some of them rely on both Christian preachers and Islamic marabous.

But the reality of the situation is that neither the marabous, nor the preachers have any magical part to play in any electoral process. Elections almost always boil down to name recognition, though in more developed systems, policies take a center stage.

In the early to mid 1980s, the first attempt at introducing a real multiparty democratic system to Liberia was embarked upon by the military regime. After suspending the constitution in April 1980 and banning all political activities, the military step up a committee to draft a new constitution and presided over a 5-year transition process.

Unknown Quantities and the Quest for the Liberian Presidency

When the ban on politics was finally lifted in 1983/84, several individuals sprang up and put themselves forward to contest those pending elections. Names like Jackson Doe, Edward Kesseley, Gabriel Kpolleh, Baccus Matthews, etc were thrown around.

Though all these people were putting themselves forward for the presidency, it was clear to anyone watching, at the time that Baccus Matthews, Amos Sawyer and their other progressive colleagues were the most recognized and known characters in the country. Their socialist leanings were already very well known and they had led the agitation against to one party state.

If the military had not banned the UPP and LPP, while they were still being registered, one of those parties would have definitely produced the president in the 1985 elections. Because they were banned, the supporters of those parties did the next best thing in voting for the Liberia Action Party (LAP), not because they preferred LAP but because they wanted to put an end to military rule.

The military stole those elections because the people who voted for the perceived winners did not believe in LAP and were not prepared to put their lives on the line for that party. They were only trying to rid the country of the military government. That is why LAP could not use street demonstrations to kick the military out of power.

From 1985, it took another 11 years for Liberians to be allowed to vote again in July 1997. In the lead up to those elections which were meant to end the country’s civil war, 13 people registered to contest the presidency. While some of the big names from the 1985 elections finally figured, they performed dismally because their time had past and the population was looking in a single direction – towards eventual winner Charles Taylor.

Taylor’s electoral victory margin, unparalleled in Liberian history, might never again be matched. This victory was not due to him employing preachers or marabous, though I would argue that he did use spiritists from both religious groups.

Like the 1985 vote, the ballot was filled with the names of candidates who were unknown even in their own little communities. Like before, some of them were of the mistaken belief that magic was on their side.

Fast forward to 2005 and the same scenario played itself out with 22 candidates. As before the ballot got longer with meaningless names. The uncertainty of the political variables in 2005 perhaps contributed to this.

There was no clear front-runner going in to the 2005 elections. Cllr. Charles Brumskine had been the only meaningful contender against Charles Taylor if elections had been held as scheduled in October 2003. Cllr. Brumskine lost his front-runner status when he decided to hibernate for a year of the 2003 – 2005 transitional government.

As the elections got closer, everyone knew that only one of three people stood a viable chance of winning: Charles Brumskine, Opong Weah and Ellen Sirleaf, but yet there were 19 others that still entered the race.

The scenario is not much different for the 2011 elections, though the length of the ballot, which had consistently grown since 1985 finally experienced a drop as only 14 people put themselves forward. As before, no more than four of these stood any realistic chance of winning, though this time round there was a front-runner in the incumbent followed closely by Opong Weah.

The 2017 Possibilities

In recent months, there have been a lot of speculations about succession to the Liberian presidency. Like before names have been bounded around. In two speculative pieces written by Front Page Africa editor, Rodney Sieh, he names Vice President Joseph Boakai, Augustine Ngafuan, Brownie Samukai, Mills Jones, Varney Sherman, Amara Konneh, Koffi Woods, etc as people who might play their hands in 2017.

With the exception of VP Boakai, Cllr. Sherman and Atty. Woods, the rest of the individuals listed range from the totally unknown to the relatively unknown. Again, of all of them, it is only VP Boakai, Cllr. Sherman and Atty. Woods who are known when it comes to serious policy issues like rule of law, economics, etc. These are known of Sherman because he contested for the presidency before, while Woods’ advocacy for good governance and rule of law is very well known in the country. On the part of VP Boakai, he has won two elections as vice president over the last 7 years.

Further, it is only VP Boakai and Cllr. Sherman that have any meaningful political constituencies. The vice president’s constituency cuts across Lofa County which has a significant voting population, while Sherman’s is in Grand Cape Mount and perhaps Bomi countries and not as vote rich.

Liberia has seriously moved on from the era where someone will put his or her hand up for the presidency simply because he’s a government official, “rich” or loves the country. While these are all good attributes, they are generally meaningless as they fail to tell the population how the person intends to alleviate their sufferings.

Being a government official, “rich” or having a Liberian flag and map in one’s blood stream will in no way make the country’s health care delivery system better. Those attributes won’t provide better standards in the education sector. They certainly will not bring someone justice when their rights are trampled upon. And they would most definitely not put money in the pockets of the hundreds of thousands of Liberians that live in squalor.

In order for someone to become president, that person must start telling the Liberian people where they stand on crucial issues that affect the lives of the population. They must have views on not just the improvement of basic social services, but where they stand on using those services: whether they would send their children to private schools or go abroad for medical treatment/checkup.

They must show the population their plans for making Liberians have a future that does not basically concern their next meal.

Those are the major issues facing Liberia going forward and this author intends to microscope all serious presidential possibilities over the next several years. Each person will be assessed mainly on policy issues and their prescription for improving the Liberian state and people.

Democratic Transition or Political Charade: Looking at Liberia 60 Years Ago

Was looking through my previous publications and came across a treasure trove of things I've written over the past eight year. Surprisingly, I've for some strange reasons not published any of these here. The following article was published in February 2012.

Democratic Transition or Political Charade: Looking at Liberia 60 Years Ago

By: Lamii Kpargoi

Pre. Ellen Sirleaf

Statement:

“We observe today, for the first time in two generations, the swearing in of a second successive democratic government elected peacefully by the will of the Liberian people.” President Ellen Sirleaf made this statement in her January 16, 2012 inaugural address.

Determination: Misleading

Analysis:

Liberia as a nation was founded in 1822 with the arrival of repatriated freed people of color from the United States of America. The group made an encampment on Providence Island from where the country was started.

Twenty five years later, the founders of Liberia declared independence on July 26, 1847. The first president “elected” was Joseph Jenkins Roberts a person with mixed black and white heritage from Virginia, USA.

Whatever election was held to bring Roberts to power was restricted to the couple of thousand settlers that were deemed as official citizens of the country at the time.

After Roberts there were several and regular changes of presidents until 1944 when President William V. S. Tubman became president on the ticket of the True Whig Party (TWP) which had been formed about seven decades earlier.

Between 1878 and 1980 the TWP had a virtual strangle hold on Liberian politics. Political opposition was not allowed and elections were generally restricted to members of the party. Between 1944, when Tubman came to power, and 1971 when he died awaiting inauguration, Liberia knew no other leader.

In her reference to smooth political transition in Liberia, President Sirleaf’s inaugural statement used a yardstick of two generations. Dictionary.com defines a generation as “The average period, generally considered to be about thirty years, during which children grow up and have children of their own.”

Doing a little back calculation, based on 60 years, one would arrive roughly at 1952. Then the question arises whether there was a change of government or inauguration of a new government in that year. As far as historic research has determined, Pres. Tubman’s first term, which started in 1944 expired that year.

A further question is thus triggered on whether Tubman’s second inauguration which happened around 1953 can be classified as a democratic transition that followed an election that expressed the will of the Liberian people.

This determination is crucial to deciding the accuracy of President Sirleaf’s claim in her inaugural address. The TWP under Tubman allowed little or no political disagreement. He crushed every attempt at forming a credible opposition against him, exiling people and even murdering some.

While there were moves to open up the political space to a multiparty system in the late 1970s, no opposition political party, under a genuine multiparty system, was officially registered in Liberia till 1984/1985.

The first ever democratic elections held in Liberia were conducted in 1985. The democratic will that came out of those elections were not realized because the military stole the people’s mandate.

The 1997 election that brought President Charles Taylor to power was the second democratic elections held in this country’s history albeit under special circumstances.

The elections of 2005 were the third democratic elections ever held in Liberia. Those elections were also the first that weren’t largely influence by extenuating circumstances. It involved several candidates and parties and everyone had the right to campaign anywhere in the country.

For this fact check, the president’s newly named press secretary, Mr. Jerolimick Piah, was contacted via his Facebook email, but he elected to ignore request for explanation. A subsequent email was sent to Ms. Shirely Brownell of the president’s office, to which Mr. Cosme Pulano sent the following response:

“A generation is anytime between 18 to 30 years. Going back from today, two generations takes us to the 1955 and 1959 general elections.

“In May 1955, for the first time since 1931, there were three candidates during the presidential election. Those candidates were William V. S. Tubman, True Whig Party; Edwin Barclay, Reformation Party; and William O. Davies-Bright, independent candidate. Tubman was elected President. In May 1959, he was re-elected in a contest between the True Whig Party and an Independent candidate. That election witnessed the swearing in of the first successive democratic government elected peacefully by the will of the Liberian people.

“As such, President Sirleaf’s statement, in her Inaugural Address: “We observe today, for the first time in two generations, the swearing in of a second successive democratic government elected peacefully by the will of the Liberian people," is absolutely correct.”

In contrast to the response from President Sirleaf’s office, Dr. Joseph Saye Guannu, on page 13 of his book “Liberian History Since 1980”, emphatically states that, “The election of 1985 was the first multiparty election in Liberian history. More than three political parties contested.”

A research of President Sirleaf’s previous speeches also unearths an interesting angle. During her first state of the nation address in January 2006, she acknowledged that her election in 2005 was the first ever democratic elections in the country. She said at the time, “I want to report to you that the state of our nation is fair and hopeful, for several reasons: We participated in a relatively peaceful legislative and presidential election campaign. We voted in an internationally judged free, fair, peaceful, and democratic [election] ever in the history of our country.”

With the 2011 elections passing off smoothly, the inauguration of January 16, 2012 was the first time in Liberia’s history where there was a transition from one democratically elected government to another.

From our yardstick for fact check determination, we’ve graded the president’s statement misleading as she most likely innocently made the error and also because she doesn’t seem to get any political mileage out of this statement.

The fact is that the 2011/2012 transition, recently experienced in Liberia marks the first time in the country’s history where one democratically elected government has turned over to another.

If you don’t agree with the misleading determination stated here of the president’s remark, you’re welcome to submit your opposition to this blog.